Add your own bets.
I will resolve according to publicly available information and my best judgment.
Will be resolved at end of 2025 at the latest.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform", the creator has specified:
An oil refinery is not considered a power plant.
The market refers to gas offshore platforms.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform', a power plant must be for civilian use.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would resolve this market to YES if the Israeli government dissolves for any reason before the market's end date.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a potential bombing of the Fordow facility, the creator has specified their evidence standard for resolution:
A statement from a single political figure (e.g., Donald Trump) is not sufficient on its own.
The creator requires confirmation that the facility was destroyed before resolving.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to a 'successful bombing' of the Fordow facility, a strike will not be considered successful if the centrifuges are not destroyed.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers proposed by users, the creator has stated they will resolve the answer based on the proposing user's terms and decision.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer for the Fordow facility bombing:
The creator will wait for a proper damage assessment before resolving this answer.
This assessment period could take weeks or months.
The current IAEA statement is considered insufficient for resolution.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to an 'attempt to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified that:
A proposal that is 'merely declarative' is insufficient for a YES resolution.
There must be an 'honest attempt' to 'actually push negotiations'.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified the following conditions for a YES resolution:
There must be reports of actual ceasefire negotiations.
The negotiations must include both sides of the conflict.
China must be mediating the negotiations.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed', the creator has specified their evidence standard:
A claim from Iran, especially if supported by weak evidence like an AI-generated photo, is considered insufficient.
The creator will look for confirmation from the Israeli Air Force (IAF).
Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Fordow facility successfully bombed', the creator has decided to resolve it to N/A due to what they judged to be unclear resolution criteria.
1,000