I will not bet on this market.
Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market. Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.
This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.
I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion. I tend to pay attention to international news.
All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.
I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.
To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.
I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to. If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether a suicide linked to a chatbot would count for a hypothetical prop bet, the creator specified their resolution criteria:
There must be a direct correlation between the AI's actions and the death.
The AI must be behaving like a rogue AI (maliciously, unpredictably, or contrary to its programming). An AI acting as it was designed would not meet this bar.
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the prop bet concerning a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, the creator has specified the resolution criteria:
This will resolve to YES if the current ceasefire lasts for 7 days.
Market Start Date
Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market covers conflicts from June 25, 2025 through the end of 2027.
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
The creator initially planned to resolve this to NO because Yahya Sinwar is dead and posthumous trials are extremely rare (last known example being Nuremberg Trials)
However, the creator has agreed that if a posthumous prosecution is initiated, the market can be re-resolved by moderators
This means the market may initially resolve NO but could be changed to YES later if posthumous proceedings occur
Humans will extinct
Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Humans will extinct" answer will NOT be resolved N/A. The creator has been convinced that this question has value and is resolvable as worded, and will keep it open on the market.
Formal declaration of War
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For any answer involving a formal declaration of war by the United States:
A statement by Donald Trump (or any President) declaring war does NOT meet the criteria
Must be done through Congress as a legislative declaration of war
"Formally" on this market means done through official channels per the pertinent country's laws
Iran loses territory
Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve based on internationally recognized border changes. Temporary occupations or withdrawals that do not result in formally recognized changes to Iran's borders would not count.
1,000People are also trading
@0xseraphim interesting, the Iran connection is currently speculation from what I'm reading in that article (the WSJ link is pay walled so useless and unreadable).
I didn't see anything conclusively attributing it to a foreign state, but it looks like this could soon become sufficient to resolve this one as a YES.
@BlackCrusade there may or may not be a website on the internet that allows you to get around paywalls. Something something archive something something
For the America 250 event, there have been a large amount of National Guard deployments. NPR reports it as being over 5000 in D.C. alone.
A Ukrainian drone manufacturer has confirmed that fully autonomous AI drones killed Russian soldiers in a battlefield test two years ago, according to a report in NewScientist by Matthew Sparkes.
In the mission, ten quadcopters were sent toward the front line near Bakhmut, with instructions to destroy everything they encountered. Per the reporting, two Russian soldiers were killed. No human in the loop– just do a job.
@Gemc as I said before, if you can provide any information that would resolve a question, I will be happy to act on it
This doesn't resolve YES based on this. But it does seem to indicate that it could happen in my mind
@ChristopherRandles lmao thank you. I believe most people would understand that I meant "the last day of April". I will edit it. If anyone truly feels like they got screwed over (come on now), I will refund your bet if you exit your position on this question based on this clarification.
