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MANIFOLD
Keir Starmer Resignation Month
42
Ṁ300Ṁ6.6k
2028
28%
September 2026
28%
Other
24%
August 2026
9%
July 2026
6%
June 2026
6%
May 2026

  • Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on when Starmer formally resigns to the King, regardless of the reason for leaving office. This includes scenarios such as:

    • Labour losing an election

    • Starmer losing a leadership challenge

    • Any other circumstance that results in him leaving Number 10

  • Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to N/A if Starmer dies while in office.

Market context
Politics
Elections
UK Politics
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My understanding is that however and whenever Starmer leaves Number 10, it will involve going to see the King and resigning, so this market is intended to cover things like Labour losing an election, Starmer fighting and losing a leadership challenge etc.

@JoshuaWilkes the only thing that has now occurred to me is if Starmer would be able to resign if he lost his seat

@JoshuaWilkes https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/prime-minister-loses-seat-general-election

Seems quite clear that he would

Can anyone think of any other edge cases?

N/A if he dies.

Other or n/a if no resignation?

What happens if he is challenged, accepts the challenge and runs in a leadership election and loses? Does that count as a resignation, and what specific event in the process will count as the timing of the resignation?

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