If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, will exports from China to the US+EU drop by 66%?
5
160Ṁ902050
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if China doesn't launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2050.
Resolves YES if the combined value US+EU imports from China in the first full calendar year following the start of the invasion is at least 66% less than the last full calendar year before the start of the invasion.
probably due to economic sanctions e.g. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-from-russia
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1345775/eu-oil-and-petroleum-imports-from-russia/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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