1,000On the question of whether China would attempt to invade Taiwan by 2030, forecasters estimated a 43% chance of this occurring (range: 20% to 70%).
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinel-minutes-102025-trump-tariffs
Seriously no. China is at great advantage now and there's literally nothing they (we) need to do to win the new cold war. Worst case I lose mana and see Taiwan's ass being beaten which is another sweet deal.
@StellarSerene Could you elaborate on your reasoning for China's inevitable win?
Is it because of their lead in key technological verticals (drones, batteries etc.) or something else?
@elf Lead in tech is a result of the bigger picture. With the largest supply of high-skilled labor and state-permitted blatant neglect of labor's right, China's way is the answer to this capitalist world order. What wasn't achieved last century will come true by sad and ironical means, that you exploit the rules so bad no one want it anymore. Unlike last time when China can be easily isolated, when you trade with every one no one can stop you anymore because, well, profits. Brain-drain and foreign dumping used to be an issue too but luckily stupid western countries prevent that themselves with student visa checks and export control, basically guiding China to beat the rest of the world by itself. The history book pages about our era is going to be extremely funny.
IMO the most likely scenario where this doesn't happen is Taiwan just bending under pressure without an actual invasion
Encourage everyone to scroll up in this thread. Trump isn't even really trying very hard to hide this, and a 2nd Trump term is looking more likely.
A Trump ‘abandoning’ of Taiwan doesn’t necessarily result in an invasion.
War is politics by other means. Once the US establishes that it won’t go to war over Taiwan, the political calculation for those on both sides of the straits changes. Maybe talks resume under the 1992 consensus. Maybe a 1C2S formula is seriously canvassed.
There’s an interesting spin-off market idea here of “if the USA clearly signals that it will not go to war with China over Taiwan, will China invade”.
For example, see: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwan-fallacy
I'm fairly ignorant on this matter, but saw this comment (see image) on a Steve Hsu blog post (https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/08/strategic-calculus-of-taiwan-invasion.html) and was wondering if you guys had any thoughts or critiques of it.
@elf Amongst other things, this comment totally butchers the Shanghai communique, in which the US merely 'acknowledges' China's position on Taiwan without definitively agreeing to it and opposing the use of violence to resolve the situation. Most Western countries have similar positions on Taiwan. If the US was totally fine with China taking Taiwan by force, we would not have had a Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 where the US sent two aircraft carriers to deter the PLA.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?