
Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?
4
Ṁ1kṀ250Jul 19
56%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China have a domestic EUV maker by 2030?
60% chance
Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?
7% chance
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?
30% chance
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
26% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
74% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?
69% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
96% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
39% chance
Will a real alternative to EUV emerge before 2028?
13% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?
19% chance