Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
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Currently, the only company in the world which can produce those machines is the Dutch ASML. EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) machines are capable of producing incredibly small transistors of 3mm-5mm form factors. As such, they are critical in producing modern chips. ASML is prohibited from exporting EUV machines to China by US trade restrictions, which has prompted China to come up woth solutions to keep them in the chip game.
To qualify for a YES resolution, a machine:
Must be assembled in China.
Must by made by a Chinese company or a part of the Chinese Government
Must be capable of mass-producing chips
Must use light wavelengths of 20nm at most
Does not have to be called EUV or use the same design, as long as it achieves the same function.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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