MANIFOLD
What organization will first create superintelligence?
26
Ṁ1.1kṀ884
2100
15%
OpenAI
20%
Anthropic
21%
DeepMind
7%
xAi
3%
Meta AI
13%
United States government
22%
Other

Subsidiaries will resolve to the "main" organization. If there's a collaboration I'll resolve to a mix in proportion to my estimate of their contribution.

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The Bavarians, most likely

As noted in other similar markets, specifying resolution criteria would be important.

@Zozo001CoN It will be very obvious when superintelligence exists.

@IsaacKing then it should be no problem to define what do you mean by this.
Anyways, the principal issue for this market is not merely whether it exists, but how to judge who achieved it.

Feel free to suggest other orgs for me to add BTW. (I didn't make it free response so as to avoid overlapping answers.)

@IsaacKing Can you add Meta?

@AmitAmin Done

@IsaacKing USA Govt.

@MWC I feel like they'd probably work with an existing company?

@IsaacKing The USA DoD has their own AGI research division.

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Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?
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