
Which company will create AGI first?
73
Ṁ1.9kṀ4.4k2036
39%
DeepMind
14%
OpenAI
11%
Anthropic
10%
xAI
10%
US Government
5%
Communist Party of China
5%
people not employed by a company
2%
1.3%
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
1.2%
DeepSeek
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will we get AGI before 2030?
33% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Sort by:
@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
33% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Will China get AGI first?
28% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?


