When will President Trump's approval rating go below 38%?
26
100Ṁ807
2029
9%
By April 1st, 2025
14%
It will not go below 38% before he leaves office.
73%
By June 1st, 2025
88%
By September 1st, 2025
89%
By January 1st, 2026
95%
By January 1st, 2029
Resolved
NO
Before he enters office
Resolved
NO
By February 1st, 2025
Resolved
NO
By March 1st, 2025

Trump's approval rating on the day he left office was 38.0%. This market will resolve YES to all options on or after the date that his approval rating dips below this number. If it does not go below this number before he leaves office (at any time, for any reason), all other options will resolve NO.

This will resolve based on the Silver Bulletin tracker. If it stops functioning or is otherwise deemed unreliable/invalid by the market creator, another website's approval rating tracker will be substituted. See the comments for more details.

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@traders Moving forwards, this market will now resolve based on the Silver Bulletin's Trump Approval Rating Tracker here, as it is the closest to a continuation of the FiveThirtyEight tracker that still exists. If that tracker goes offline or the number becomes restricted behind a paywall, I may move the resolution to RealClearPolling's tracker instead. I would prefer to avoid that however, as RCP's tracker is significantly less robust and the website has a history of ideological bias.

RCP had the most accurate aggregates of 2024

reposted

News broke tonight that ABC is shutting FiveThirtyEight down. I'll try to have an alternate tracker decided upon and announced here before the next deadline (April 1st).

Comment hidden
bought Ṁ3 YES

Resolved first two. Tracker is now live here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/

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