Will Trump's net approval rating be under -5% on Sept 30th?
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Ṁ1kṀ17kresolved Oct 1
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This question will resolve based on Nate Silver's weighted average currently available at https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin?open=false#%C2%A7the-topline-so-just-how-popular-is-trump.
According to Silver, as of today April 6th, Trump's net approval rating currently sits at 46.8-49.5 = -2.7%. If the estimate for Sept 30th, 2025 is strictly lower than -5%, the question will resolve as YES.
If for some reason Nate Silver's estimate is no longer available by then, the question will resolve as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Created a more precise followup for the end of the year: https://manifold.markets/Jo2e2b/trump-net-approval-rating-at-eoy202
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