Resolves yes if: 1. there is a global ban on AI training runs larger than some threshold OR 2. AI alignment is solved OR 3. there is a large decline in humanity's capacity to make GPUs Update 2026-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A large decline in humanity's capacity to make GPUs (Condition 3) will not count towards a YES resolution if it is caused by AI-induced human extinction.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (11 traders, as of Sep 21, 2026).

Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?

MANIFOLD

Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?

Ṁ130Ṁ276

2030

19%

chance

ALL

Resolves yes if:
1. there is a global ban on AI training runs larger than some threshold
OR
2. AI alignment is solved
OR
3. there is a large decline in humanity's capacity to make GPUs

Update 2026-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A large decline in humanity's capacity to make GPUs (Condition 3) will not count towards a YES resolution if it is caused by AI-induced human extinction.