🏅 Top traders

Given that the question of which way this resolves comes down to whether a 20% or 15% tip in an uber is “standard” I’m inclined to resolve 50/50

Here’s my plan for resolution (proposed by Gemini)

Based on the Manifold market description, the creator has not publicly listed the specific addresses they will use, only that they will pick "3 popular locations."

To evaluate this market accurately yourself, you should use routes that represent different "types" of SF trips (cross-town, short hop, and downtown traffic). Here are three specific, representative trips with exact addresses you can use to benchmark the prices.

Trip 1: The "Cross-Town Tourist" (East to West)

This covers a long distance across the city, testing per-mile/minute rates and traffic handling.

* Start: Ferry Building (1 Ferry Building, San Francisco, CA 94111)

* End: California Academy of Sciences (55 Music Concourse Dr, San Francisco, CA 94118)

* Why it matters: This is a classic, high-demand tourist route that cuts through multiple neighborhoods.

Trip 2: The "Commuter/Nightlife" (The Mission to SoMa)

This tests a medium-distance route often used by locals, where surge pricing frequently triggers.

* Start: Mission Dolores Park (Dolores St & 19th St, San Francisco, CA 94114)

* End: San Francisco Caltrain Station (700 4th St, San Francisco, CA 94107)

* Why it matters: This connects a popular residential/hangout spot to a major transit hub.

Trip 3: The "Downtown Event" (Union Square to Chase Center)

This tests the dense downtown corridor and event-based pricing algorithms.

* Start: Union Square (333 Post St, San Francisco, CA 94108)

* End: Chase Center (1 Warriors Way, San Francisco, CA 94158)

* Why it matters: Chase Center (home of the Warriors) is a massive destination; pricing here is heavily influenced by demand spikes.

How to Evaluate (Methodology)

To replicate the market creator's likely methodology:

* Open both apps simultaneously (Uber and Waymo One).

* Input the exact addresses above.

* Check the "Standard" price on both.

* Uber: Use "UberX" (the standard option). Note that the market creator said they will include the "standard tip" for the Uber price (usually calculated as ~15-20% on top, or whatever the default mid-option is in the app).

* Waymo: Use the standard "Waymo One" price (no tip is required/expected for robots).

* Record the specific time you checked (prices fluctuate wildly based on time of day).

@DavidFWatson Are you counting a tip towards the comparison, which would greatly increase the drivered Uber price? Personally I think you should since tipping is so normalized (and supported by the app's UX).

@Panfilo ughh, yes I will count standard tip.

@DavidFWatson

Results

At 15% tip: Uber still wins 2/3 (barely—Chase Center is $20.64 vs $20.89)

At 20% tip: Waymo wins 2/3

The breakeven is 16.4%. I previously didn’t specify what standard is, I was thinking 20%, but maybe that’s way outside the norm? They’re basically at parity. The fact that I stated ‘median’ in the original description doesn’t help, since the middle one is what we’re debating anyway.

@DavidFWatson For what it’s worth, I’d consider 20% to be a standard tip.

@Gabrielle I also thought 20% was standard, but uhh, https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/whats-the-standard-tip-in-an-uber?r=RGF2aWRGV2F0c29u