This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors. If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
1,000Reading the prediction at the Understanding AI link, it sounds like we got to YES on this possibly within days of this market being created. There were a lot of doubts until recently (like ways Tesla might've been cheating with tele-operation) but my understanding is that these doubts, fair as they were, have been put to rest. Anyone can go to Austin, Texas and (eventually) get a ride in one of about two dozen Tesla robotaxis and usually it will be fully unsupervised -- no human monitor, either in person or remote, at least not in real time while the car is driving. So not fundamentally different than Waymo. Or, I mean, a pretty drastic difference from Waymo, but a difference of degree more than kind at this point.
If the tiny scale or remaining doubts about tele-operation or the fact that there still are some cars with passenger-seat safety monitors or other ways Tesla's not yet in Waymo's league are what's preventing this from resolving YES, I'm anxious to hear the clarifications.