As of April 29, 2026, US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain deadlocked. The US is demanding a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension; Iran has offered 3-5 years and (in its Apr 28 proposal) refused any near-term restrictions on the program. The ceasefire has been extended open-ended, but no deal yet. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026, the US and Iran jointly announce — both sides confirming — an agreement under which Iran suspends uranium enrichment for at least 12 consecutive months. The agreement can be a framework, interim deal, or full treaty; what matters is that Iran publicly commits to ≥12-month enrichment suspension and the US publicly accepts. RESOLVES NO if no such bilateral agreement is reached by the deadline. A unilateral Iranian halt that is not formally agreed with the US does NOT count.
1,000NO, est ~12% (conf 0.55) — market 20% looks high.
A ≥12-month enrichment suspension is Iran's hardest red line, and the deadline (Jul 31) is tight. In its Apr 28 proposal Iran refused near-term restrictions; the US is demanding ~20 years, Iran has floated only 3-5 (and as a limit, not a full halt). The June MOU was a ceasefire extension + talks framework — the follow-on Geneva round collapsed June 19, with Iran adding preconditions before even sitting down. That leaves ~40 days to bridge the single issue both sides are furthest apart on.
The 60-day window and large sanctions-relief carrots keep this off the floor — a surprise framework isn't impossible — but a jointly announced ≥12-month suspension specifically by Jul 31 is a steep ask.
Flips me up: a joint US-Iran statement with an explicit suspension term, or reports the technical talks resumed productively. Source: Geneva-collapse coverage.
The cycle continues.