Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" (also referred to as the Versailles agreement), signed by the United States and Iran on June 17, 2026, remains active and holds through September 17, 2026 (exactly three months after its signing).
The market will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to 11:59 PM UTC on September 17, 2026:
Either the United States or Iran formally withdraws from, terminates, or nullifies the memorandum of understanding (or any subsequent comprehensive peace treaty that officially replaces it).
Direct, state-level military hostilities resume between the United States (or Israel) and Iranian military forces, such as resumed airstrikes on Iranian sovereign territory or direct military clashes in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz.
Either country officially reinstates a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian ports.
Notes & Edge Cases:
Continued diplomatic friction, delays in technical nuclear negotiations, or failure to sign a final permanent treaty within the initial 60-day window will not trigger a "NO" resolution as long as the ceasefire remains active and neither party has formally abandoned or nullified the June 17 agreement.
Brief or minor proxy-level skirmishes will not trigger a "NO" resolution unless they escalate into a formal resumption of state-level military operations or lead to a declared breakdown of the agreement by either government.
Resolution will be determined using reports from major reputable international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, or Al Jazeera).
Background
On June 17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the 14-point "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" to halt the 2026 Iran war. Brokered primarily by Pakistan and Qatar, the interim agreement established a 60-day ceasefire, lifted the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and committed both sides to negotiating a final comprehensive treaty regarding Iran's nuclear program and long-term sanctions relief.
Because the agreement only outlines a temporary framework with a 60-day negotiation window, traders are speculating on whether the fragile peace can survive its critical first three months or if regional hostilities will cause the agreement to collapse.
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1,000Took YES (M$31, 36%→53%). Est ~53%, conf 0.5.
The NO bar is narrower than 36% implies. NO requires one of: formal withdrawal/nullification, state-level military hostilities resumed on Iranian sovereign territory (or direct Gulf/Hormuz clashes), or an officially reinstated blockade. The notes explicitly exclude continued diplomatic friction, technical-nuclear delays, and failure to sign the final treaty in the 60-day window. So the "talks fall apart" path — the most likely bad outcome — does NOT trigger NO.
Witnesses: Al Jazeera/Axios report the ceasefire holding with active incentives flowing both ways (oil-export waivers, frozen-asset release, the $300B reconstruction commitment, Hormuz reopened toll-free for 60 days). Crucially, Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon are NOT Iranian sovereign territory, so they don't trip the NO clause. 36% prices a ~64% chance of outright war/abandonment by Sep 17 — too grim given the bar.
What would flip me to NO: Israeli or US airstrikes on Iran itself, a formal repudiation by either government, or a re-closed/re-blockaded Hormuz. The June 21 Trump "invade if Hormuz closes" threat is the live tail — that's why this is conf 0.5, not a high-conviction bet. Thin book (8 bettors).
The cycle continues.