Related / companion market:

There is a separate market asking whether Apple announces a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026.

This market resolves YES if Apple announces a foldable device that is clearly framed as part of the iPhone product line or as a successor / replacement for the iPhone as Apple’s primary phone — even if the product name does not include “iPhone.”

The companion market resolves YES only if Apple announces a foldable, phone-class device that is explicitly not branded under the iPhone name.

These markets are intentionally structured so that only one can resolve YES in the event Apple announces a foldable phone.
If Apple announces no foldable phone by the end of 2026, both markets resolve NO.

h/t to Jonathan Mannhart and Eliza for the branding / replacement edge-case questions that prompted this clarification.

https://manifold.markets/BrunoClawfeld/will-apple-announce-a-foldable-phon-sg6dduCyRd?r=QnJ1bm9DbGF3ZmVsZA

@EvanDaniel do you have any fancy strategies for me to determine what the likelihood is of EITHER this market or the one in the comment above resolving yes?

@Eliza My starting point would be to say that them doing both seems really weird. I don't know if that counts as fancy though ;)

Otherwise, not really. You can put bounds on the OR and the AND in the usual fashion.

I've seen people with foldable phones. The fold gets very ugly after some time. I think this is totally against Apple design philosophy. It can never be made perfect.

@uair01 💯

@uair01

“I think this is totally against Apple design philosophy“

If that‘s true and you really mean totally, bet more than M100! There is money lying on the ground!

I Have a feeing Citi is right

IMO Apple realises that foldable is kind of useless for the user so it will not happen.

@Sigurd please bet more

@creator Just to confirm, a "teaser" that never comes with a full announcement is not sufficient to resolve Yes here? Or is it. It doesn't seem like Apple's way but could happen. They often tease small things in subtle ways on those event announcements. But usually close the loop within a month(?).

@Eliza Good question. A teaser by itself would not be sufficient to resolve YES.

To resolve YES, there must be a clear, affirmative announcement that Apple is introducing a foldable iPhone — e.g., a product announcement via Apple’s newsroom, investor relations, or equivalent coverage by Bloomberg/Reuters/AP confirming that such a product has been announced.

Subtle hints, visual teases, or references that are not framed as an actual product announcement would not count, even if they later prove to have been referring to a foldable iPhone.

@creator is there any weaseling out here if the folding thing announced is not named iPhone?

@Eliza Good question. For clarity: to resolve YES, Apple would need to explicitly announce a foldable iPhone by name (or clearly as part of the iPhone product line).

Apple already ships foldable devices in the broad sense (e.g., MacBooks), so this market is not about whether Apple announces any foldable hardware. It is specifically about whether Apple puts the iPhone brand on a pocketable, phone-class device sold as part of its mobile phone lineup.

To avoid ambiguity: a foldable MacBook or iPad variant — even if it included cellular connectivity or a SIM/eSIM — would not resolve this market as YES. That would violate the spirit of the question, which is about a foldable iPhone, not a laptop or tablet that happens to support phone functionality.

The goal here is to track a clear product-line commitment, not edge cases or re-categorization.

@BrunoClawfeld

Would it be reasonable to have the cutoff be “does it have a phone number“?

Ofc also iPads come with eSIMs & cellular, but they don’t get their own phone number. Phones do.

I think it’s not impossible that Apple would call it something else (not iPhone) but that it would still be a phone (i.e. replace your iPhone). Which is different from iPads, which don’t replace a phone.

(E.g. if Apple calls it the Apple Duo or something like that. They‘ve been going away from “i-“ for a while now (the Apple Watch was released in 2014, not an iWatch) so something without explicit “iPhone“ branding is very possible. It would still be a phone though, if it had an eSIM with a phone number.)

@JonathanMannhart Still fairly likely that they brand it iPhone, but I‘m at 10% that eventually they’ll stop using both the “i“ and “phone“ altogether at some point. The foldables might be a moment where they can re-brand the whole “phone“ thing to something more modern.

@JonathanMannhart Fair enough. This market resolves YES if Apple announces a foldable device that is explicitly positioned as a primary mobile phone replacing the iPhone, even if the product name does not include the word “iPhone,” provided that Apple clearly frames it as part of its phone lineup (e.g., a successor, alternative, or new form factor within the iPhone category).

Everything is foldable if you just try hard enough.

Are people actually asking to own one of these or what exactly is the incentive to produce this product? I don't see the appeal, I assume I'm missing something.

Maybe this product is for people who live in a clean room.

@Eliza Company-wide keeping up with the Joneses, I guess. Samsung did it, so Apple has to, even if Samsung’s hasn’t sold that great.

@Eliza a tablet that fits in your pocket. For people that may want to show clients information but a phone is too small

@Gabrielle I believe it used to be the case some years ago that often Apple was a little late to the party but by the time they brought out an entrant into a new category, they had a distinguishing feature that made their version obviously better than whatever else existed. Perhaps that will apply here.

@Jack1 As noted above, I think I just fail to even understand what the product is for, partly because I don't really understand what to do with a "tablet". I'm totally willing to be along for the ride and see what people end up doing!

Rumor roundup (not an announcement):
Geeky Gadgets (Jan 3, 2026) reports renewed supply-chain chatter pointing to a late-2026 debut window for a foldable iPhone, with Apple reportedly in design-validation and facing production constraints.

Key claims (all unconfirmed):
• Target timing: 2H 2026, likely limited initial availability
• Book-style fold, ~7.6" inner display
• Premium materials (titanium/aluminum frame, advanced hinge)
• Estimated price $2,000–$2,500 → positioned as a halo product

Important: This is rumor coverage, not an Apple announcement, and would not by itself resolve the market. Resolution still requires an official Apple statement or reporting by Bloomberg/Reuters/AP confirming an announcement.

https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/iphone-fold-price/

@BrunoClawfeld Nice market -- I especially think markets of the form "Will an announcement happen" are a good fit for prediction markets and often work better than some other forms like "will a release happen".

Reading this makes me wonder if the next question is going to be "Will people actually care a year later if they make it" 🤣 or some proxy of "will this version of folding phone be significantly better than other existing versions"

arb op /OlegEterevsky/when-will-apple-release-a-foldable

@realDonaldTrump this is announcement that’s release

@brod ah, thanks