Resolves 'Yes' if a foldable phone designed and sold by Apple is available to purchase by consumers in North America before January 1st, 2028. (Pre-orders would not count.)

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (92 traders, as of Sep 17, 2026).

Will Apple release a foldable phone before 2028?

@polymathematic it’s not yet been released, nor is it yet available for purchase

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/07/report-apple-begins-serious-work-on-a-foldable-iphone/

https://www.macrumors.com/guide/foldable-iphone/ seems like it's in the works

niko boughtṀ7YES

Does it have to have a folding screen, or does any folding component qualify?

@JimHays Hmm. I assumed it would be a folding screen (since current and previous iPhones have all essentially been large touchscreens), but good question!

Considering that others have already traded on this market, let's say that any folding hardware component that's part of the core structure of the device qualifies.

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