If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month? | Manifold

If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?

52

Ṁ1kṀ6.8k

2030

47%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves YES if this market resolves YES, and within a month from that time, a Chinese military unit has either:

Killed a deployed member of the US military.
Fired on a US military vehicle or base.

This market resolves NO if this doesn't happen within a month of the resolution of the previously mentioned market. If that market resolves NO or N/A, this market resolves N/A.

Market context

China Taiwan potential conflict

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bought Ṁ10 YES

If China attacks Taiwan without a pre-emptive strike on US assets in the Pacific, they are taking a massive risk hoping the US won't intervene.

bought Ṁ25 YES

If China decides to attack Taiwan, it would make a lot of sense to attack the US and Japan as well simultaneously.

I think the invasion will start with attacks on the US Navy, perhaps from ships that appear to be civilian.

@BTE Exactly.

If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Partially inspired by this blog post.

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Related questions

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Will China invade Taiwan by year's end?

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If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

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