If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

2.1kṀ6494

2030

40%

chance

ALL

Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China
Resolves No otherwise
Resolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan

"Invasion" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force.

If China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes

China Taiwan potential conflict

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If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

36% chance

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

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This along with the Taiwan invasion market implies a 26.6% chance of direct conflict with China before 2030. We're in trouble

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predictedYES

Under what circumstances would it resolve N/A?

predictedYES

@PipFoweraker N/A if China does not invade Taiwan by close date. I’ll update the description

What if US uses force against Taiwan:

No way, america isn't doing anything for taiwan.

predictedYES

@DuSusisu Put some Mana on it then boi

@DuSusisu Biden said explicitly several times that they would, despite his advisors trying to stop him from saying this.

He would do it.

predictedNO

@DavidBolin What if Trump was President though. Or some other Republican?

Trump is about as unpredictable as MMA.

You’d think though with his hatred of china he’d intervene. But it’s not out of the picture Xi pays him a golf course to turn a blind eye.

People are also trading

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

36% chance

Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?

22% chance

People are also trading

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