If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Plus
89
Ṁ46452030
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China
Resolves No otherwise
Resolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan
"Invasion" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force.
If China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@PipFoweraker N/A if China does not invade Taiwan by close date. I’ll update the description
@DuSusisu Biden said explicitly several times that they would, despite his advisors trying to stop him from saying this.
He would do it.
Related questions
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
36% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
34% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
32% chance
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
60% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance
(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
When will China invade Taiwan
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
29% chance