MANIFOLD
2025 Dallas ICE facility shooting props
20
Ṁ250Ṁ1.8k
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
YES
Shooting was motivated by anti-ICE sentiment
Resolved
YES
Kash Patel's posted bullet pic holds up to media scrutiny (see clarification)
Resolved
YES
Shooter was a redditor
Resolved
YES
Shooter was under 30
Resolved
YES
Shooter was never married
Resolved
YES
Shooter was unemployed
Resolved
NO
Death Count Exceeds 3
Resolved
NO
Shooting was motivated by anti-immigrant sentiment
Resolved
NO
At least one additional person is arrested under suspicion of supporting the attack
Resolved
NO
Shooter confirmed to be left wing or left leaning

Background from wikipedia:

On September 24, 2025, an unidentified male suspect shot three people detained by United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents at an immigration facility near Interstate 35E in the Love Field area of Dallas, Texas, before shooting and killing himself afterward. The shooter fired multiple rounds from a roof or an elevated position down into the field office's sally port. One of the detainees shot was killed on scene, while the other two were taken to nearby hospitals, with one of them pronounced dead after arrival. No federal agents were wounded nor injured.

Resolutions:

I'll NA anything posted after it has been confirmed to happen.

I'll give things a buffer time and then accept mainstream media reports for resolutions. If in doubt, I'll accept submitter's resolution decisions.

Kash Patel's posted bullet pic holds up to media scrutiny (see clarification)

Here's the tweet. I'm defining "holds up to media scrutiny" to mean that counter evidence is not reported in a mainstream outlet suggesting that "anti-ice" either wasn't written by the shooter or doesn't imply that the shooter was anti-ice. I'll accept reporting from places like WSJ, NYtimes, Washington Post, not places like Fox News, The Daily Beast, The Intercept. I won't trade on this particular question.

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@ookina_inu you're going to have to call this one. My bar for "confirmed" is going to be quite high

@BenM Ack on that. I think my bar would be something like an unambiguous statement by the individual relating to their political beliefs or motivation with veracity confirmed by the government or sources listed above.

for calibration purposes if I had to make a call for the Kirk shooter based on all current available information I would probably resolve yes (based on text logs, etc)

@ookina_inu how do you want to resolve this? I said I'd leave it up to you. If it were me, I'd probably resolve NO since I have seen no reporting of left leaning and have seen mostly comments about being apolitical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Dallas_ICE_facility_shooting

@BenM thanks for the ping. Yeah I'm leaning NO as well. After some searching and reading, here is what I think can be confirmed wrt the shooter's politics:
- he was registered as an independent in OK and voted in the (open) Democratic primary in TX in 2020.
- writing on the bullets and second-hand reports seem to suggest he had some animus toward ICE and possibly the US government in general, but I couldn't find anything indicative of other left-leaning positions.
- some of his family members have apparently made statements to the effect that he didn't make any strong overt political displays before the shooting.
- no writing or texts by the shooter have been released that are strongly indicative of his ideological or political beliefs.

Voting in the 2020 primary and opposition to ICE are the strongest pieces of evidence in favor of YES. I think these are suggestive but not dispositive. The TX primary did not require a party registration and hostility towards ICE is compatible with but does not exclusively imply broadly left-leaning partisan beliefs. Therefore I'll resolve NO (nothing so far confirms that the shooter is left-wing or left-leaning).

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