Will there be another Manifest before the end of 2024?
➕
Plus
41
Ṁ14k
Dec 31
96%
chance

Derived from Saul suggesting this is plausible here: https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex

Resolves YES if there's an event after 20 June 2024 and starts before 1 Jan 2025 with all of the following properties:

  • more than 50 attendees

  • organized by staff at manifold or manifund or similarly adjacent folks (e.g. me if i don't work there would count)

  • has the name "manifest" or some portmanteau in the name (e.g. "manivibefest" or "lessfest" would count)

  • is at least nominally for prediction markets, forecasting, and other related topics (betting, mechanism design, impact markets, etc)

#Manifold
#Manifest
#Manifest 2024
#️ Spicyfest
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Ṁ1,000
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@creator There was minifest https://minifest.is/ , which, if it had more than 50 people, should resolve the linked market (and therefore this one)

bought Ṁ2,500 YES

bought Ṁ50 YES

@nikki I hope it's not Dec 22/23 (I think it's pretty typical to be unavailable the weekend before the holidays)

bought Ṁ25 YES

bought Ṁ15 YES

i'm assuming a "minifest" would count (given that it's a portmanteau in the name, as long as it has >50 attendees), although it's a longshot

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