Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart? | Manifold

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

9

Ṁ13kṀ8.5k

2051

April 25, 2032

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

4%

2026

7%

2027

10%

2028-2029

10%

2030-2031

9%

2032-2033

9%

2034-2035

9%

2036-2037

9%

2038-2039

8%

2040-2041

7%

2042-2043

6%

2044-2045

13%

>= 2046

Elon says "in 36 months - probably closer to 30 months - the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space" and it will then get ridiculously better to be in space.

Dwarkesh podcast Feb 5, 2026

This suggests his timeline for this market would be late 2028-2029

This market is intentionally being generous in favor of Elon's claim, but if there is a robust analysis that says terrestrial data center is $1 cheaper than space data center that doesn't count towards resolution. (At that point, though, I would expect someone to be able to write a credible analysis that says the space data center is cheaper)

Resolution must accompany a link to said post or take place in 2046.

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I think we need some wealthy Elon stan in here as a counterparty. Is @MolbyDick still around?

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