This market resolves to 50% if neither event occurs by by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (which is the expected case)

This market perfectly encapsulates how Polymarket took advantage of new betters.

Scamming but with extra steps

I expect an honest resolution.

@AlanTennant the gotcha is that it resolves to 50% if neither happens by the end of July...

@Tomoffer Thank you, that is a gotcha, random chance of winning or losing, because that's not at all what the question is suggesting will happen. I get it, extra rules link in description, still seems intentionally like a sneaky trap. I just cancelled out my bid by bidding the same amount in the other direction too.

Smh mods made me add a warning to my old noob trap market but not this one

@Bandors https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-the-next-president-of-the-unit-d748870d920b?r=QmFuZG9ycw

Is this the highest liquidity second coming market?

this market's odds

Where are the market rules on PM? I can't find them (though I've seen them quoted enough times)

@SimonWestlake if you click on the option on poly, they appear below.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.

@SimonWestlake IMO this seems pretty clearly intended as a trap for people who don't read the fine print, which is hosted on a different site and not even prominently displayed over there, in addition to being deliberately written in a misleading way (with the first paragraph matching what people would intuitively assume the question is asking).

I'll be blocking the market creator and would advise others to do the same. The platform is worsened by this kind of crap.

@JohnGeorgeSalter I'm also getting the feeling that all the people betting this down and then losing mana when it resolves to 50% will rate the resolution pretty badly.

@Ziddletwix The market should be canceled, solved at 50% or at least the title changed. I don't think anyone would disagree.

@Emanuele1000 Ah, I would cancel the market so as to also cancel the creator's Mana earnings, which amount to almost 1000 M in earnings with a scam title.

@Emanuele1000 Unfortunately, misleading or confusing markets tend to get a lot of activity. It might be short-sighted when Polymarket does it, if it drives people away. On manifold it's kind of tragedy of the commons.

@Emanuele1000 i lowkey disagree

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.

@Lilemont @vdb please change the close date of this market to July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to match the rules.

@Lilemont is this what the polymarket says? Even the second sentence here contradicts the third

@ImaPerson Yes, I copy pasted the Polymarket question description.

why is this so overpriced 🤨

@realDonaldTrump Read the description and then the comments

@realDonaldTrump @vdb is deliberately lying by hiding the fact it's going to resolve to 50-50 since GTA 6 is delayed.

@ShankarSivarajan 👀

@ShankarSivarajan I challenge you for a duel of 5k mana.