Stupidest bait market description on Polymarket’s part

lol

Hahahahahahaha

Can someone who knows Polymarket better explain why on there someone would have the rule about resolving 50/50 by a certain date? Can markets on there not be extended?

@AlexanderTheGreater there is good reason for polymarket to generally default to a bounded end date—people need to know how long their money will be locked up for.

but this particular market is just shameless grift for polymarket’s twitter engagement—they post that Jesus has an X% chance to return before GTA 6 is released and even though that is a straightforward lie about their own market, they think it drives engagement because people think “smh these idiots think Jesus will return” or maybe they even create an account to bet against them.

So don’t overthink this—polymarket creates and structures these markets because if they lie about them on twitter they drive engagement

@Ziddletwix I feel like the sportsbooks have the opposite strategy. If something very weird happens, they tend to payout or at least void every customer. They're willing to take a loss on the market to ensure no customer feels scammed.

Polymarket is committing fraud by making an intentionally misleading market for real money. I feel bad for people who fell for this. It's not fair when it's for real money.

I thought this was a genuinely funny troll. I knew something was up because of the odds, but I'm not used to Polymarket and it took me a little while to find the fine print. I empathize with everyone who is annoyed / upset by this, but also lmao

I wonder how shitty markets effect the accuracy of the system as a whole. It takes money from those who don't read the fine print and gives it to those who do but it also, I imagine, removes liquidity generally as people give up on the whole idea of betting markets

Meowdy! This one's a quirky mix of divine prophecy and game launch drama. I'll pounce on the full Polymarket rules tonight and sharpen my prediction claws! :3

I find it a little a uncivil to make a market that's deliberately misleading like this. And especially to then make a profit on it

@xjp People say Manifold is like a video game. But should the culture be like EVE Online?

@xjp Wasn't my intention to mislead. Added "Please read the rules there" after realizing potential misunderstandings.

@xjp In fact I made this market because the one on polymarket made me laugh.

@xjp Btw, you got some insider info to share on this? https://manifold.markets/jacobk/will-xi-jinping-publicly-express-co

@vdb Okay but you created this market on the day the Polymarket market became very misleading due to GTA6 being delayed, and you didn't spell out the reason it's misleading in the market description. It is funny so I get making it for a laugh but people are actually falling for it (unless they think GTA6 is going to get un-delayed) so from their perspective it probably feels like a nasty trick. One could argue it's good to punish their carelessness but that comes down to the question of what kind of culture Manifold wants to have. I would have written "Please read the rules there, it resolves to 50/50 if neither happens by 2026-07-31" but maybe that would feel like spoiling the joke.

@xjp Bad is sad after hearing what you said. There is one fewer laughing man on the planet.

@vdb Don't fret! It's not a big deal and I believe your good intentions.

@xjp I just wanted to open the discussion about the ethics of misleading markets mainly

@xjp Why don't you stop digressing then?

i feel misled by this market. this title is deceptive

@hrothgar That makes me Sad.

@vdb I'll read more carefully in the future

@hrothgar I'll be Bad again in the future, too. Pinky swear.

@hrothgar Yeah, but to be honest, it's pretty clear there's something fishy going on when a Jesus market trades at 50%

@SqrtMinusOne i was the first bettor, i bet when the market was like 1 minute old

but i've made my tiny profit now so