Is this the highest liquidity second coming market?

this market's odds

Where are the market rules on PM? I can't find them (though I've seen them quoted enough times)

@SimonWestlake if you click on the option on poly, they appear below.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.

@SimonWestlake IMO this seems pretty clearly intended as a trap for people who don't read the fine print, which is hosted on a different site and not even prominently displayed over there, in addition to being deliberately written in a misleading way (with the first paragraph matching what people would intuitively assume the question is asking).

I'll be blocking the market creator and would advise others to do the same. The platform is worsened by this kind of crap.

@JohnGeorgeSalter I'm also getting the feeling that all the people betting this down and then losing mana when it resolves to 50% will rate the resolution pretty badly.

@Ziddletwix The market should be canceled, solved at 50% or at least the title changed. I don't think anyone would disagree.

@Emanuele1000 Ah, I would cancel the market so as to also cancel the creator's Mana earnings, which amount to almost 1000 M in earnings with a scam title.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.

@Lilemont @vdb please change the close date of this market to July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to match the rules.

@Lilemont is this what the polymarket says? Even the second sentence here contradicts the third

@ImaPerson Yes, I copy pasted the Polymarket question description.

why is this so overpriced 🤨

@realDonaldTrump Read the description and then the comments

@realDonaldTrump @vdb is deliberately lying by hiding the fact it's going to resolve to 50-50 since GTA 6 is delayed.

@ShankarSivarajan 👀

@ShankarSivarajan I challenge you for a duel of 5k mana.

Stupidest bait market description on Polymarket’s part

lol

@bens even this isn't clear. The third sentence contradicts the second sentence. Seems unfair to say different things at different points in the description.

Hahahahahahaha

Can someone who knows Polymarket better explain why on there someone would have the rule about resolving 50/50 by a certain date? Can markets on there not be extended?

@AlexanderTheGreater there is good reason for polymarket to generally default to a bounded end date—people need to know how long their money will be locked up for.

but this particular market is just shameless grift for polymarket’s twitter engagement—they post that Jesus has an X% chance to return before GTA 6 is released and even though that is a straightforward lie about their own market, they think it drives engagement because people think “smh these idiots think Jesus will return” or maybe they even create an account to bet against them.

So don’t overthink this—polymarket creates and structures these markets because if they lie about them on twitter they drive engagement

@Ziddletwix I feel like the sportsbooks have the opposite strategy. If something very weird happens, they tend to payout or at least void every customer. They're willing to take a loss on the market to ensure no customer feels scammed.

@Ziddletwix And they could and do regularly put the end date in the title! e.g. "Will Ukraine and Russia have a ceasefire before 2026"

They could have put "Will Jesus Christ Return before GTA is released or before June 2026" They intentionally left the last part off.

@Ziddletwix can't you just sell if you need your money back?

@AlexanderTheGreater setting aside for a sec who ends up holding the shares, long dated markets on polymarket will always (in its current form) be quite inefficient. they pay no interest (nor is polymarket itself profiting on holding the assets!), the money is locked up for years. someone is losing out on that interest, whoever it is.

so if polymarket made more long-dated markets, bettors who don't want to hold long term could indeed just sell if they "need their money back". but they will face the same pressures—most markets are not very liquid, so "buy and assume you'll sell before resolution" can be costly, plus buyers will be respecting those interest rate constraints.

but fwiw interest rates are only part of the story. most people simply don't want to bet on things that are very far away. those predictions might be intellectually interesting, but that's not how people use the site.

so in practice, markets on poly are overwhelmingly short-dated. of course they will put up 2028 prez & etc early, but even those markets get pretty low activity this far out. and the vast majority of markets are designed to resolve within a few months.

none of this is that relevant to the linked market anyways—it is extremely reasonable to structure it such that the market needs to resolve by a fixed date, but they could just have chosen that the default is to resolve to 0%, or they could not use a title that lies about what the market price means.