Who will have the highest number of robotaxis by 2029 (per capita) ?
14
1kṀ801
2028
24%
The United States
14%
China
4%
Luxembourg
4%
Germany
4%
France
4%
UK
15%
UAE
30%
Other Country

Measured as the number of at least level 4 autonomy (SAE) robotaxis on public roads on 1.1. 2029, divided by population of that country.

If there is conflicting or inaccurate data, I will consult traders or create a poll. If the data is lacking, I will resolve n/a.

Level 4 automated vehicles with remote fleet support for assistance (as Waymo, Zoox and others currently use (2025)) count as level 4!

I will not trade in this market.

  • Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding privately owned vehicles with level 4 autonomy:

    • A vehicle with the capability is not automatically counted as a robotaxi.

    • It will only be counted if it is actually made available for robotaxi usage, such as through an official opt-in program for a ridesharing network.

Technology
China
Europe
Automotive
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be credible reports of more than 200 Tesla robotaxis in concurrent operation on Aug 1st 2025?
14% chance
Who will have the highest number of robotaxis by 2029?
How many Waymo robotaxis deployed at the end of 2026?
Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
Tesla launches driverless Robotaxi service before August?
15% chance
9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.
22% chance
Which company will facilitate the greatest number of autonomous vehicle rides in 2030?
Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?
13% chance
Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
12% chance
Will the Robotaxi come out below $30,000?
11% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy