Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?
37
1kṀ65922029
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
resolves YES if
trump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time
other republicans campaign trump as a party candidate
he wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running
resolves NO if
trump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close
this market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Trump tries to serve a third term?
32% chance
Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?
31% chance
Will Trump finish his second term?
86% chance
Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?
50% chance
Will Trump get a third term in office?
7% chance
How many times will Donald Trump mention the possibility of a third term in public statements before June 30th, 2025?
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
27% chance
Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
11% chance
Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)
7% chance
If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
55% chance
Sort by:
@strutheo Are the YES conditions slated as "and" or "or"? Does only one need to be fulfilled, or all 3?
This market but more shenanigans allowed:
https://manifold.markets/TimothyBandors/will-trump-win-a-third-term-as-pres
People are also trading
Related questions
Trump tries to serve a third term?
32% chance
Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?
31% chance
Will Trump finish his second term?
86% chance
Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?
50% chance
Will Trump get a third term in office?
7% chance
How many times will Donald Trump mention the possibility of a third term in public statements before June 30th, 2025?
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
27% chance
Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
11% chance
Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)
7% chance
If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
55% chance