Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if any of the following occur before December 31st, 2028: A bill or proposal allowing Trump to run for a third term is brought to a vote in any congressional committee A bill or proposal allowing Trump to run for a third term is brought to a vote in either chamber of Congress A constitutional amendment proposal allowing Trump to run for a third term is brought to a vote in any congressional committee or chamber

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 29% chance (32 traders, as of Jan 28, 2026).

Will a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if any of the following occur before December 31st, 2028:

A bill or proposal allowing Trump to run for a third term is brought to a vote in any congressional committee
A bill or proposal allowing Trump to run for a third term is brought to a vote in either chamber of Congress
A constitutional amendment proposal allowing Trump to run for a third term is brought to a vote in any congressional committee or chamber

For a "conservative" party all about "traditional values" they sure are willing to forsake the Constitution...

A State might vote on an Amendment for some sort of signal/test of loyalty, even if it has no real effect unless a critical mass of States ratify. I'll bump the probability up a little.

If we're talking about passing the bill, I'd be highly skeptical. But considering the whole vibe with Trump right now, I think bringing it to a vote is very possible.

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