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MANIFOLD
⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (12 DONE)
36
Ṁ1kṀ5.3k
2027
99%
Coyote vs Acme releases
99%
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
94%
100th spacex launch of the year
81%
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
77%
Chat GPT 6 releases
56%
twitter x mail releases
47%
grok 5 releases
31%
noam chomsky passes away
24%
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
24%
stripe ipo happens
23%
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
20%
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
19%
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
19%
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
17%
discord IPOs
15%
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
14%
Twitter gets a new CEO
11%
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
10%
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
9%
windows 12 announcement is made

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

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@strutheo
Re Twitter gets a new CEO
Elon Musk was CEO of XAI and Elon Musk is CEO of SpaceXAI after acquisition of XAI in Feb 2026. Same person but CEO of a different company. Does it have to be a different person or is a new company CEO that happens to be same person still a "new CEO"?

@ChristopherRandles if it goes back to musk i guess i count it, since it was linda for a while. still no ceo afaik

@strutheo oh wait are you saying hes currently ceo of x now? did i miss something

@strutheo
I could well have got that wrong.
X is now nested inside the SpaceXAI (ex-xAI) subsidiary of SpaceX. It does not have an independent CEO right now—Musk is the controlling figure across the group.

So if you want to say it is the specific x company having to have its own CEO then that is fine.
A possible alternative might have been to consider Elon as the overall controlling executive of the group effectively making his temporary taking on of the role at X more official.

bought Ṁ5 NO

@strutheo i think this happened

@strutheo resolves YES thx

@strutheo but it didn't release yet lol

@deagol unresolve mods pls

cc @mods

@deagol @strutheo now released so cancel that unresolve instruction?

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/03/apple-introduces-iphone-17e/
and change to 3 done.

@ChristopherRandles or maybe "released" needs it to be available? i guess doesn't matter much either way

bought Ṁ21 YES

@strutheo would the 17e count? it's a new iPhone even if part of the existing 17 family.

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 95% order

@strutheo USA Government had a shutdown

bought Ṁ173 YES

@strutheo Nioh 3 released today
and US Government shutdown can both resolve