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MANIFOLD
⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (10 DONE)
32
Ṁ1kṀ4.3k
2027
99%
taylor swift married
91%
Coyote vs Acme releases
90%
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
87%
grok 5 releases
86%
100th spacex launch of the year
86%
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
66%
twitter x mail releases
50%
Twitter/x releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
42%
Chat GPT 6 releases
40%
noam chomsky passes away
40%
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
39%
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
34%
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
34%
stripe ipo happens
33%
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
29%
windows 12 announcement is made
28%
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
28%
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
25%
discord IPOs
20%
Twitter gets a new CEO

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

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Which will be the second of these things to happen in 2026?
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🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (26 DONE)
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83% chance
Which of these four events will happen first? #1
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bought Ṁ5 NO

@strutheo

@strutheo i think this happened

@strutheo 7.8 in Philippines Jun 8

@strutheo resolves YES thx

@strutheo but it didn't release yet lol

@deagol unresolve mods pls

cc @mods

@deagol @strutheo now released so cancel that unresolve instruction?

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/03/apple-introduces-iphone-17e/
and change to 3 done.

@ChristopherRandles or maybe "released" needs it to be available? i guess doesn't matter much either way

bought Ṁ21 YES

@strutheo would the 17e count? it's a new iPhone even if part of the existing 17 family.

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 95% order

@strutheo USA Government had a shutdown

bought Ṁ173 YES

@strutheo Nioh 3 released today
and US Government shutdown can both resolve

People are also trading

Which will be the second of these things to happen in 2026?
☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (26 DONE)
Will something happen in 2026?
62% chance
What will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related)
📆What will happen in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (11/100 DONE)
Which of the following 10 events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order?
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83% chance
Which of these four events will happen first? #1