If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?
If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?
25
100Ṁ12012028
87%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The amount of alcohol consumed can be more than one drop.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Orange juice and other beverages with trace amounts of alcohol (around 0.5% ABV) will not count as alcohol consumption for this market's resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
reposted
Orange juice contains about 0.5% ABV but I assume you wouldn’t count it. What’s the cutoff?
bought Ṁ5 YES
one single drop. just the one. one drop of whiskey from a comically empty whiskey vodka bottle while he sticks his tongue out
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
When will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Will Pete Hegseth resign as US Secretary of Defense before the end of July 2025?
20% chance
Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
24% chance
Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?
19% chance