Just FYI, based on resolution criteria, this should be bounded above by https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-150k-in-2026

I think, based on the title, this should have been resolved n/a if BTC doesn't reach 150. But if you change that ruling now, I'll expect a refund of the 100M I just invested. (and because of that resolution criteria uncertainty, I'm actually just going to sell the shares I just bought, which means someone other than me will be hurt if you change the ruling now. So you really shouldn't change the ruling.)

@DannyqnOht i'm pretty sure the "AI summary of creator comment" in the description is a misreading of same comment. It's a very common issue with the AI slop creeping into all the descriptions, and no one should be betting solely based on that, nor be expecting refunds of such bets.

The creator comment states:

no if it doesn't happen within two weeks.

I'll keep it open

which I read as they will extend the market as long as necessary for the $150k condition to be met (this is precisely what they did back then when I asked, extending it for a year), and once it happens the 2 weeks countdown starts running, resolving NO if $160k isn't reached in that time. This makes perfect sense to me and does not imply an upper bound. Granted, the title could be improved by not seeming like a conditional, something like:

Once bitcoin reaches $150k USD, will it reach $160k within two weeks?

or, Will bitcoin reach $160k USD within two weeks of reaching $150k?

Of course the creator themselves can confirm what they meant.

@deagol I straight agree with your analysis, and sold the shares I bought :P I did misread the comment.

Hope the creator makes this clearer!

(Refund not expected, but if the creator cares, I lost 8M to Daniel Tello for this. I don't care, it only matters for culture purposes on manifold - does the creator want to make a culture on manifold where creators are culturally responsible for miscommunications like this, or bettors are? I kinda lean bettors eg me in this case, and thus I don't expect a refund.)

@strutheo N/A if it doesn't happen by market close (<2w)? how about a source for price?

@deagol no if it doesn't happen within two weeks.

I'll keep it open

Will use ea plurality for price

@strutheo reopen or no?