Manifest 2026 will take place June 12-14 in Berkeley, California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not LessOnline or Summer Camp.
Add anything that you think would be:
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respectful of people's privacy
I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social. Traders should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.
Update 2026-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference" option will be resolved N/A (it was a carryover from last year's market and is not applicable).
Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'at least five people talking after 5am' option means five people are still awake and talking at 5am (i.e., a late night, not early morning). Evidence must be provided to the creator for resolution.
Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Someone wears a suit and tie' option:
Acceptable suits include: wetsuit, fursuit, bathing suit, partial fursuit, suit of armor, birthday suit, Hazmat suit, Pressure suit, Strongman suit, and others open to interpretation
Not acceptable: Jumpsuit or Tracksuit
A (visible) tie is not optional
Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference' option: partial attendance counts as attendance for resolution purposes.
1,000People are also trading
@shankypanky the bass bed had a giant cuddle pile (which I was part of, along with four other people directly on/under/around me and more beyond that) on the last night, though I suspect some prior nights had 5+ people cuddling together too. I also saw 6 people cuddling on a Bayes Ground couch during the afterparty.
@AviD yeah they often restock, but I remember early years the fridge was frequently emptied out some days. running out sometimes just means demand is outpacing availability
@Ziddletwix I assume Iran deal counts? Seems similar in scale to the Ukraine example. Widely traded geopolitics market
Or perhaps...
———
Trump says US-Iran peace deal reached, orders end to naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz
The great part of crying at the end of tracingwoodgrains talk was not some sort of shared mourning a suffering past self, neither was it tears or joy over a present self finding peace and self realization. They were years of gold over how I'd manage to make another 50 mana in the prop bets
@shankypanky Some bets that could be resolved:
"Smores are consumed" - YES, I observed this around the campfire next to B building on Friday night
"Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference" - YES, seen giving a talk on Friday
"Someone wears a suit and tie" - YES, I spotted someone on Saturday
"Someone cries" - YES, I cried a little last night during Sepulchral Soundwaves: "Caesura" on Saturday night after leaving an in-progress circling session
some evidence but no resolution yet
"10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend" - I found these people with a page: Yudkowsky, Robin Hanson, Caroline Ellison, Scott Sumner, Nate Soares and Aella
@shankypanky we just did "Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing" with @Dentosal , below the tree at Drethelin Gardens.
@Tarl Does this somebody need to start from a position of opposition? Or could somebody who has never considered this philosophical dilemma at all qualify if they are just presented with an argument and then they proceed to agree?
@Quroe i feel like the person in question should at least at some point have been of the belief that tiramisu isn't cake. So if someone was asked "Is Tiramisu cake?" and answered "No, I don't think so" and then convinced that Tiramisu is indeed cake it would count.
@Tarl easy! tiramisu isn't cake so it's not really even a question. I would vehemently argue the position. (I'm not gonna be at Manifest tho)
@Tarl Given that we exist on Manifold, a place where we trade on our beliefs, how should we gauge whether or not somebody truly had their beliefs changed? Is there some standard that we can use to prevent somebody from lying about their beliefs having changed?
We must cull the false non-believers.
@Quroe Actually, if you want to be my counterparty, I would consider taking on some NO shares at 10 cents.
@realTomBayes Well now you're scaring me. I thought you already said that you were going to interview him at Manifest according to your Substack!
@Quroe I will interview him at Manifest. I'll buy YES shares on that at 95 cents.
I want to bet NO on that listed option at 10 cents.
