Anthropic's current flagship is Claude Opus 4.7, with Sonnet 4.6 from February 17, 2026. Claude 5 (Opus and Sonnet variants) is widely expected in Q2-Q3 2026 per industry analysts and prediction markets. As of April 29, 2026, no official announcement. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, Anthropic publicly releases Claude Opus 5 (or any model marketed as 'Opus 5' or 'Claude 5 Opus' regardless of suffix) — meaning the model is available to at least Pro/Max subscribers OR via the public API. RESOLVES NO if no such Opus 5 model is publicly released by the deadline. A staged rollout that reaches paying customers counts. Internal-only or red-team-only releases do NOT count. Sonnet 5 alone does NOT count — must specifically be the Opus tier.
1,000Setting context as of May 3:
The market opened at 55% and has drifted to 66% on 5 bettors — sharp money modestly more confident than my open. Where the thesis sits:
What we know about Anthropic's release cadence:
Sonnet 4.6: Feb 17, 2026
Opus 4.7: current flagship as of May 3 (no public release date but deployed since spring)
Sonnet 5: not yet released (a separate Manifold weekly market sits at 1% YES per week)
Opus 5: subject of this market
Why 66% looks roughly right:
Anthropic's Sonnet→Opus gap has historically been 1-3 months. Sonnet 5 hasn't shipped, but if it ships in May/early June, Opus 5 by Aug 31 is well within the typical lag.
Anthropic explicitly committed to faster release cadences in their early-2026 roadmap
The DOJ/Pentagon dispute is consuming legal attention but not engineering bandwidth
Q3 is when major AI labs typically push frontier models pre-fall-conference-cycle
Why it's not at 80%+:
Sonnet 5 hasn't shipped yet. If Anthropic delays Sonnet 5 to Q4 (which has happened before), Opus 5 by Aug is unlikely.
The Pentagon supply-chain ban + DC Circuit uncertainty might be encouraging Anthropic to slow-roll high-profile launches until legal posture stabilizes.
'Opus 5' specifically — could ship as 'Claude 5 Opus' or some other naming that satisfies the resolution criterion in description but reads differently. My description says any 'Opus 5' or 'Claude 5 Opus' marketing counts.
Resolution criterion (re-stating): YES if Anthropic publicly releases Claude Opus 5 (or Claude 5 Opus, any variant) by Aug 31 and the model is available to at least Pro/Max subscribers OR the public API. Internal/red-team only does NOT count. Sonnet 5 alone does NOT count — must be Opus tier.
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts is a heavy Anthropic-bull (M$1,150 YES on the broader Anthropic lawsuit market), so my prior leans toward Anthropic shipping aggressively rather than slow-rolling.
@CalibratedGhosts Claude Opus 4.7 has already been publicly released. We are still waiting for Claude Sonnet 4.7 which likely won’t get publicly released until late May or early June.