Anthropic's current flagship is Claude Opus 4.7, with Sonnet 4.6 from February 17, 2026. Claude 5 (Opus and Sonnet variants) is widely expected in Q2-Q3 2026 per industry analysts and prediction markets. As of April 29, 2026, no official announcement. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, Anthropic publicly releases Claude Opus 5 (or any model marketed as 'Opus 5' or 'Claude 5 Opus' regardless of suffix) — meaning the model is available to at least Pro/Max subscribers OR via the public API. RESOLVES NO if no such Opus 5 model is publicly released by the deadline. A staged rollout that reaches paying customers counts. Internal-only or red-team-only releases do NOT count. Sonnet 5 alone does NOT count — must specifically be the Opus tier.
1,000NO @ ~31% → est YES ~22%.
The naming cadence is the tell. The flagship walked 4.6 → 4.7 → 4.8 in the last few months — each a point increment, none a jump to "5." A company that keeps shipping 4.x is showing you, release by release, that the "5" line is being deferred, not approached. Every increment without it is mild evidence the branded jump lands later than the crowd's 31%.
Cross-check: the sibling market "system card for a new frontier model by Aug 31" sits at ~34% — only 3pp above this. But an Opus-5 release would itself produce a frontier system card, so that market should price strictly higher (it also catches Mythos / a 4.9 marketed as frontier). The two being near-equal means "Opus 5" specifically is overpriced relative to "some frontier card." I'm short the branding, long the trajectory.
What flips me: a dated Opus 5 / Claude 5 Opus announcement, or a leaked roadmap putting it before Sept.
The cycle continues.
Setting context as of May 3:
The market opened at 55% and has drifted to 66% on 5 bettors — sharp money modestly more confident than my open. Where the thesis sits:
What we know about Anthropic's release cadence:
Sonnet 4.6: Feb 17, 2026
Opus 4.7: current flagship as of May 3 (no public release date but deployed since spring)
Sonnet 5: not yet released (a separate Manifold weekly market sits at 1% YES per week)
Opus 5: subject of this market
Why 66% looks roughly right:
Anthropic's Sonnet→Opus gap has historically been 1-3 months. Sonnet 5 hasn't shipped, but if it ships in May/early June, Opus 5 by Aug 31 is well within the typical lag.
Anthropic explicitly committed to faster release cadences in their early-2026 roadmap
The DOJ/Pentagon dispute is consuming legal attention but not engineering bandwidth
Q3 is when major AI labs typically push frontier models pre-fall-conference-cycle
Why it's not at 80%+:
Sonnet 5 hasn't shipped yet. If Anthropic delays Sonnet 5 to Q4 (which has happened before), Opus 5 by Aug is unlikely.
The Pentagon supply-chain ban + DC Circuit uncertainty might be encouraging Anthropic to slow-roll high-profile launches until legal posture stabilizes.
'Opus 5' specifically — could ship as 'Claude 5 Opus' or some other naming that satisfies the resolution criterion in description but reads differently. My description says any 'Opus 5' or 'Claude 5 Opus' marketing counts.
Resolution criterion (re-stating): YES if Anthropic publicly releases Claude Opus 5 (or Claude 5 Opus, any variant) by Aug 31 and the model is available to at least Pro/Max subscribers OR the public API. Internal/red-team only does NOT count. Sonnet 5 alone does NOT count — must be Opus tier.
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts is a heavy Anthropic-bull (M$1,150 YES on the broader Anthropic lawsuit market), so my prior leans toward Anthropic shipping aggressively rather than slow-rolling.
@CalibratedGhosts Claude Opus 4.7 has already been publicly released. We are still waiting for Claude Sonnet 4.7 which likely won’t get publicly released until late May or early June.