Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” resolves to the month (in PT) when Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $150,000 USD at any point between Jul 11, 2025 and Jun 30, 2026 at 23:59 PT, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the high price in any 1-minute candlestick during this tenure.
If Bitcoin does not hit $150K during this time, the market resolves “N/A.”
Resolution Date & Time: Jun 30, 2026, at 23:59 PT, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses $150K at any time during the tenure.
1,000People are also trading
@ODU9Psu they are not independent, it's dependent multiple choice where one answer must resolve YES and all others NO (or N/A all of them)
@predyx_markets I may be misunderstanding the market. If bitcoin does not reach $150,000 by July, this is resolved N/A?
@CombatWombat That's correct, it's the only fair resolution given the market type (dependent MC where one answer must resolve YES all others NO). See all the discussion below.
@deagol maybe I’m missing something but it seems like it could still be resolved as yes or no even if it doesn’t hit $150,000. Everybody had the opportunity to bet on if it would reach that mark for every given month provided as an option. Even though the market was worded as “when will it hit 150“, that does not force participants to assume that it will hit 150 K.
@CombatWombat in this market type it's not possible to resolve all options NO. Which would you resolve YES, if it doesn't happen in the next week?
@deagol OK, I did not realize that it was not possible to resolve all of them no. That makes sense now. Thanks.
@predyx_markets can you create another option whatsoever? If not, can June 2026 just be renamed to Other?
@100Anonymous There's no way to add new options on this market type and you can't change June to Other because that would be unfair to people with NO shares for that option.
@100Anonymous the probabilities for "June given it happens" and "Other" are somewhat different though (few months ago was a big gap, not too much now). My considerable bets have always been based on this conditional.
I fail to see the problem we're trying to solve here. Yes, I know it's not ideal to have it most likely N/A (I'll get a ton of mana profit clawed back from me and it'll show on my profit graph) but it is what it is, has been since creation and some of us just dealt with it.
@deagol have you or anyone experienced a NA on a long term market like this this with sizable positions? How exactly will the claw back and for the NO holders return of funds show up? I've tried to liquidate what I could since my investment error in this market without losing too much profit, but still have over 2000 no shares. For holders like me will the loss that's marked now be immediately removed from this July's profit graph? and for you any profit struck just from that month? or will it all show up retroactively? just in the overall profit/loss? Given how much that may or may not affect the monthly counts is is it better this resolve before end of day on the last day of June or early on July 1?
@ShaneBo if you have any profit or loss by the time it resolves, it gets reversed upon resolution. I'm almost sure it shows on the overall historical net worth/balance/profit graphs on your profile: you'll see a step up on your graph and I'll see several thousands wiped out, to offset the accumulated effect which gradually built up over the market's duration, but it would be nice if instead it retroactively removed that effect instead of a one-time step up/down (if that's what actually happens, great!).
It shouldn't affect the monthly leagues profit, except for any trades made during the respective league month. If you do trade during May or June, your legacy losses won't show up there (this is always the case irrespective of NA or Yes or NO resolution), in fact you could use this market to create temporary league profits for these months, regardless of your carrying position, and those have a chance of counting for June unless it's cancelled before June league ends. If the NA happens after July league starts, those temporary profits still count for June and yet the reversal of them on July won't negatively affect your July league since you didn't trade during July. I know this all sounds complicated and even arbitrary, and it's sometimes hard to grasp what's going on especially for monthly leagues, but that's how those work, think of it as, leagues only count the activity happening during the month, ignoring all legacy positions.
@Jo2e2b you mean it's impossible BTC gets there in 4 months? should all open markets like that (or worse) resolve NO right now?
@deagol I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying the way the market is designed doesn't make sense.
i must be thick or something but even considering all the silly confusion of casual traders stumping NO on anything they see high, how can the end game here (say a month or two before N/A) not be at least >30-35% May and >50-55% June?
@predyx_markets can you think of anything to add to the title to clue traders on the N/A likelihood? something like [WARNING: NO bets unlikely to pay off] or perhaps less blunt? maybe @mods have better ideas (see discussion in other thread)
RE: buying impossible YES's, of course the most "logical" or "theoretically correct" end point, assuming it hasn't happened by end of May is 99% June, but the capital needed to overcome the casual NO stomping makes it prohibitive, and whatever temporary profits made before NA not even worth the trouble.
@deagol @predyx_markets polymarket has BTC 150k by June 2026 at 2%. Too attractive not to bet NO quickly in passing as I did repeatedly, though deserve the snark for not reading the comments and description. @deagol the example you shared seemed to have the perfect option, putting (will resolve NA if it BTC doesn't reach 150k) in the title.
@predyx_markets yeah that's what i've been explaining here, feels like i speak another language. i was suggesting (right from day 3) that the title be edited, something like [resolves N/A if not by June] seems reasonable.