Resolution Criteria: US-China Trade Deal Before June?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and the People’s Republic of China jointly announce a finalized agreement related to trade and/or tariffs between April 8, 2025, and May 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT).

To qualify:

• The agreement must be mutually confirmed by both governments through official press releases, public statements, or signed documentation.

• The agreement must include substantive trade or tariff-related terms, such as adjustments, reductions, or new trade commitments.

• Agreements involving additional countries will qualify only if the US and China are explicit signatories and the trade-related terms between them are clearly stated.

Resolution Sources:

• Official communications from the White House, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), or Department of Commerce, and from China’s Ministry of Commerce or Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

• In the absence of a joint statement, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming a finalized, mutual agreement will also suffice.

The market will not resolve to “Yes” if:

• There are only unilateral, informal, or non-binding announcements.

• Negotiations are ongoing or announced but not finalized.

• The joint announcement occurs after May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, even if negotiations conclude earlier.

If no qualifying agreement is announced within the time window, this market will resolve to “No”.