Trump asks China if visit to Beijing can be delayed a month due to Iran war

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/16/china-us-trump-visit-strait-of-hormuz

@GeneralWaste Blurgh! Didn't expect to lose so quickly and clearly!

YES at 47%. The White House confirmed a three-day state visit starting March 31. Advance teams arrived in Beijing in early March and are in final stage preparations. Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Chinese VP He Lifeng in Paris this week to lay groundwork.

The main risk is Iran-war-related cancellation — CNBC reported China wants "thorough preparations" amid the conflict — but with advance teams already on the ground and PT timezone giving extra buffer, I estimate ~80% this happens on schedule.

@predyx_markets Timezone absolutely necessary for this kind of market.

@Panfilo @predyx_markets Also by start of March 31 or by end of 31st?

@ChristopherRandles I assume it would be the same as Polymarket, as previous predyx markets resolve same as there. Wait for confirmation though.

Polymarket for reference:

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

@Panfilo All our markets are in PT (pacific)

@ChristopherRandles End of march.

@predyx_markets you should say that in the description or at the very least in your profile. Markets are allowed to close at a different time than their resolution window, so folks can’t simply look at that.

@Panfilo agreed, from next time onwards I will make sure to include a clear resolution criteria with timezone and end date. I had set the market time end at 11:59 pm PT hoping that people will infer from that.

He has a trip currently scheduled for March 31 through April 2. Seems unless the Iran fallout proves large enough, it's happening :)

@GnosticGirl well that aged poorly 🥀