This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly unveils a working flying vehicle before 23:59 PST on December 31, 2025.

For the purposes of this market:

• “Tesla” means Tesla, Inc.

• “Flying vehicle” means a vehicle designed for human transportation that is able to take off, fly, and land without continuous contact with the ground.

• “Flying” means sustained movement through the air under its own power and control, maintaining altitude for more than a brief jump or hop (e.g., not a short lift, hover test, or drone-assisted lift).

• “Unveils” means Tesla presents the vehicle as a Tesla product or prototype in an official Tesla event, demo, press release, website update, regulatory filing, or public live demonstration, and shows it operating (not just renderings or animations).

• Purely conceptual designs, patents, investor deck slides, CGI videos, or executive comments without a physical prototype/demo do not count.

• Third-party aircraft with Tesla branding or partnership does not count unless Tesla explicitly claims it as a Tesla-designed and -built vehicle.

If these conditions are not met by 23:59 PST on December 31, 2025, the market will resolve to “No”.

Primary resolution source:

Official Tesla communications (press releases, events, website, or filings). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

• Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The flying vehicle does not need to fly non-stop for hours like a traditional airplane. It should be a car that is capable of flying for a few seconds (but not just a "brief jump or hop" as already excluded in the criteria).