This market resolves to the calendar month in the Eastern Time (ET) time zone in which Anthropic releases Claude 5.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
1,000@Gabrielle I have a NO sell order at 1% for April 2026, which is guaranteed to resolve NO because it's currently May 2026 ET and Claude 5 hasn't been released. I'm selling because it's a dependent market so early resolution is impossible, and will probably not be resolved for months.
@Dssc Thanks! Just put up limit orders for April, March, and Februrary.
@Gabrielle im not sure why the 1% YES order didnt automatically fill the 1% NO order but ive sold into it