The mana shop and new subscription plan are live! https://manifold.markets/shop
We plan to add more digital goods, cosmetics, and features for the membership plan over time.
Please use this thread to provide feedback and suggestions on these new features.
@ItsMe Agreed, having a gray star is pleb-signaling. Thankfully, I got a gold star, a graduation cap, a crown, and a halo.
@ItsMe I’m happy with my modest blue star, indicating temperance, good health, and a childlike sense of play
@ItsMe You can throw money around as much as you want but you'll never convince anyone that you're a true member of the nobility!
Vive la révolution!
There is now a cost/benefit breakdown for supporter tiers at manifold.markets/supporter
If you’re not sure about the value, check that out!
@Gen I’d prefer if all of the fields were adjustable like the one for referrals is, to better reflect personal behavior
@ian if the business plan approves it can we make "your daily loan is dished out automatically" part of the 500 mana subscription level? This should avoid the load issues under the previous system. Feels like a good fit for subscription.
@Eliza FWIW I am not a subscriber yet and haven't even really considered it, but if that was a feature I would at least give it a serious look.
@Eliza Well it's fine if it's a switch that is easily accessible and even better if it's off by default.
@Matthew_H I think right now the main issue is a lack of communication that it is somewhere between 'free' and 'you actually make mana if you subscribe'. Some number of users don't have 500 in their balance to start, though.
I think they should be able to get the next 100 users with the current strategy but without increased marketing within the site it's gonna be hard to hit 500.
@Matthew_H i doubt that people are expecting prices to drop. probably people didn't look at it in enough detail to know it's worth the cost if they do their daily quests, or something
@Bayesian I don't understand how it's worth the cost. I make more mana from daily quests without the plan than I would make from the plan. (750 to 375 mana, respectively.)
@Qoiuoiuoiu Without the plan, you make (25+5)*30 =900. With the plan, you make 900*1.5 - 500 =850, plus four additional rewards from market creation, 850 + 4*50 =1,050
@KarlWang I did the same math and got the same result, but I for one am not maintaining a perfect streak or making 1 market per week. I wonder how many are?
@retr0id Between 300 and 500 users have a current betting streak of 30+ days.
I think if people knew the subscription was mana positive if they maintained a streak, it might encourage more people to get a streak? Dunno.
@retr0id Surely everyone knows it is good hygiene to create a market every week! Keeps the pipes flowing.
love that streak freezes made it in. however, I do think the ideal use case for shop streak freezes is buying a consumable "vacation mode" rather than topping off normally generated freezes.
subscription plan looks decent. hits most of the major points (incl badge!). the badge should probably look more like the line art of existing badges however.
looking forward to new content and updates to this!
@bens
Claude's answer:
The system uses a prorated credit model with a fresh 30-day term. Here's how it works:
Scenario: Plus (M$500/month) → Pro (M$2500/month) with 15 days remaining
Credit: 15 days × (500 / 30) = M$250
You pay: M$2500 - M$250 = M$2250
New expiration: 30 days from now (not 15 days)
@SG oh wow, that's ideal! Claude is clever, some big corporation subscription services can't even figure out how to do that
Having to log in for a month to get a freeze was a strong incentive to log in every day. Now not only do you have to buy freezes, but you can only store one. I have 22, for example. If this had been in place three years ago, I probably would have stopped participating in the site after the first reset (I think I missed two or three days). The streak is probably the only reason I've never taken a break from the site in over two years.
It bothers me that it present paid loans as a new feature and then, after a week, make it a “paid” feature. I would hardly have used the loans, except in special one-off situations, but I still feel like I’m being ripped off.
And in general, it's a system that rewards those with large amounts of Mana compared to those with small worth. The subscription fee for those with large amounts of Mana becomes irrelevant in percentage terms, and the bonuses become increasingly larger, such as levers or multiplied bonuses. Even leaving aside the fact that you have to pay to get Mana, which perhaps doesn't make it a pay-to-win system, it's a system that makes those who are already "rich" even "richer".
Annoying in general, even more so with the monthly rankings system. For me, Manifold is a site that allows you to make predictions and compare who makes the best predictions, but it is gradually turning into something completely different. At best, it is a site that rewards those who have made big predictions in the past, in the worst case, it rewards those who want to spend $100+ per month (starting with referral bonuses for those who create markets that make it into the monthly rankings, not only pushing up market creators, but also pushing up those who have an audience on other social networks, it would have been enough to create two different monthly rankings, one for predictions and one for market creators).
@Emanuele1000 That's not entirely true, because obviously you can get higher percentage profits with smaller amounts of Mana than with large amounts of Mana, but subscribing allows you to double the percentage of Mana earnings, doubling the leverage, with a fixed payment of Mana, which means that those with more Mana will always have more Mana. I really don't understand the point...
@Emanuele1000 I mean, the goal of the site is to make yourself richer, so it makes sense that the subscription is aimed at helping people to do that.
@4fa well, if we go on such byways, it is the noun body for "pamppu" for finnish word cases which means truncheon, so you would have, "pampun", "pampulla", "pampusta", etc.
Does "Multiplied mana from daily and weekly quests: 1.5x" mean the maximal streak bonus will increase from 25 mana to 37/38, the daily sharing bonus from 5 to 7/8 and the weekly market creation bonus from 100 to 150?
Also, if I have currently more than 2 streak freezes, will "Streak Freeze Capacity: max 2" reduce them to 2?
@4fa seemingly existing streak freezes are safe, though I don't know if it affects future monthly freezes
@Eliza Like, every user should be told flat out that they're crazy if they don't take the deal. You should have a really strong goal of hitting 1000 subs. That's how the game works.
@Eliza Why? Is it the daily free loan? I've been to scared to touch it since changes were made and I didn't have enough patience / time to read up on it. Is it back to free money?
@Qoiuoiuoiu Your rewards increase by more than it costs per month, provided you are an active user. But I'd like to know what happens to my streak freezes before I take the deal. @Eliza @SG
@NivlacM Now he's thinkin' 'bout mana every night, oh
Is it that trade? I guess so
Say you can't bet, pampu, I know
That's that me espresso
sorry
@SG Surface level comments to start:
The benefits comparison needs a "no subscription" column. People won't buy it if they are confused, and I'm instantly confused.
What's the punishment for referral fraud from paying users? Are you going to ban them even though they're paying customers?
How are you going to handle it when a paying user maxes out the 3x leverage and then blows up and goes super negative? Are you going to offer them account insurance? (You laugh but I'm serious -- this is one of the things people will try to do!)
After people buy out all of the one time upgrades, what's next? Do you already have iteration plans? I feel like the most obvious thing missing is a set of collectibles that come out once a month for a moderate cost.
@Eliza Oh, somehow forgot:
Where can I bet on how many users subscribe within the first 30 days, and then how many are still subscribers on 1 March? Evan's market is good but I want to also bet on this directly.
@Eliza @EvanDaniel made this market, anyone interested in the above can bet here as one proxy:
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-more-mana-purchased-i
Can I turn the cosmetic rewards on and off as I desire, or are they on forever? (This should be obvious on the shop page.)
Upthumb this if you think the SUBSCRIPTION MEMBER BADGE ("star") should appear next to your name IN THE COMMENT SECTION. If you disagree just do nothing.
@SG I genuinely think the Mana Shop is really missing items at the 100,000 mana level. We have LOADS of users with > 100k balances but less than a million. These users are prime targets to sell a 100k item to. The 25k and below are peanuts to them but the 1 million is unreachable. If you don't have an idea of an item to sell for 100k or 250k, you should definitely come up with something or have a contest to design something.
@GleamingRhino true!! Let me stack hats! And I want my stack displayed everywhere! If I get enough it should interfere with the comment above mine!