As per https://manifold.markets/stats, as measured in dollars spent.
Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Manifold adds a "Pay directly in dollars" option to the mana shop:
Purchases will count if they appear on the mana sales chart at https://manifold.markets/stats
If the chart is broken and there are other ways to get relevant data, the creator may change this approach (with mod team input, as the creator is invested in the market)
Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Manifold implements a way to pay for subscriptions or other items directly with USD (without creating mana as an intermediate step), such purchases will be treated as different from mana purchases and may not count toward the mana sales total for this market's resolution, depending on whether they appear on the mana sales chart at https://manifold.markets/stats.
1,000@EvanDaniel so far the mana shop allows paying in mana only -- if they add a "Pay directly in dollars" option, would you count those for the purposes of this market REGARDLESS of whether or not they appear on the mana sales chart, or ONLY IF they appear on the mana sales chart?
@Eliza Well I would hope that if the subscription doesn't include any actual mana it wouldn't get included in the "mana sales" chart! It's revenue from something other than mana sales!
My initial inclination is to say "it counts if it's on the mana sales chart" but if that's broken enough and there are other ways to get relevant data available I might change that. But I'm invested in the market, so I'd definitely seek mod team input.
it wouldn't get included in the "mana sales" chart!
The thing I'm trying to get at here is:
If the user pays $5 for the 500 mana subscription, there is an implementation detail, either:
The $5 is turned into 500 mana which is immediately used to pay the subscription
OR
The $5 pays for the subscription "directly" with no mana being created
In the event that the mana shop does allow USD payment directly, I hope this market's result does not hinge on an implementation detail that has no bearing on the actual amount of things they sell.
The same question may come up if the shop expands to physical goods as well.
@Eliza Ah, I see you have found another way in which "money which is not money" causes problems. Yep, that's a real issue... My initial hunch would be that one user flow from credit card to subscription can in fact count as different than the user taking two separate (sets of) actions.
@Eliza Whether the mana shop is released by March or not? I don't know what the odds of that happening actually are, but imo it seems like it could be the single largest change they could make to affect mana sales by then
Edit: I guess that's not really a decision the Manifold team would make per se but could still be useful info for traders to split the odds of shop vs no-shop?
Edit2: Playing off Evan's suggestion of using the Evan favourability index, could split the odds into whether the Leadership Index market is higher or lower than in December? Predict if popular = profitable?
@Eliza Thanks! I was trying to ask something more like "will they figure out something good / will this system actually work" not "is it working yet / are people mad right now".