Predict the outcome of men's tennis match play at events throughout the 2025 ATP season.
Each match that begins will resolve YES if the FIRST player listed advances to the next round, either by win or walkover. The match will resolve NO if the SECOND player listed advances (again either by win or walkover). A match will resolve N/A if it does not take place (that is, if a player withdraws before the match begins). Seeded players are listed with their seed.
Example:
๐ช๐ธ C. Alcaraz (1) v. ๐ฎ๐น L. Nardi (Q) [Doha ATP 500 - Round 2]
Will resolve YES if Alcaraz, seeded first, advances by win or walkover. Will resolve NO if Nardi advances instead.
Will try to leave some limit orders up prior to the match start time for the day, but then will close betting until the matches are completed.
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@traders what a ride! Carlitos takes his crown back, winning the U.S. open and taking over the number one ranking in the process. Alcaraz is now roughly 2500 points ahead in the race for #1. maybe not insurmountable, but a big lead for sure. check out my market on who will be year-end tap #1 if you'd like to place a wager. will take a week or two off then come back for the 500s coming up. maybe the 250s if I can finish a little script I've been working on.
@polymathematic he is 2500 points ahead? PIF ATP rankings shows Alcaraz at 11,540 and Jannik at 10,780. So a very small gap. But keep in mind that Alcaraz is playing in the Laver Cup while Jannik is resting up for the Shanghai Masters. If Jannik loses the Shanghai Masters to Alcaraz then he'll fall even further down as he won last year, but if Jannik wins it would close the gap
@traders Men's semifinals up now with some limit orders. Djokovic took Alcaraz out in four in Australia, can he do it again? Does FAA have any chance against the freight train that is Sinner right now?
@Tyler31 I did. I wish there were more traders, but usually the live matches just end up with one or two, and so the market just leaks liquidity, particularly in the early stages of a tournament. But I opened it back up today if you want to trade on the two remaining menโs matches.
@traders alright, i know what vegas says, but what do we think is gonna happen today. sinner in straights, obviously. will tommy paul join fritz in round 4? does FAA put up a fight against zverev? what's your craziest gut feeling on the day...
@polymathematic FAA - Zverev has the potential to be a crazy match. Felix has been playing better (and bigger) lately, so if he can get Sacha frustrated, it will be a all-out war on the courts
@105du i guess i'm actually overrating paul, 'cause i thought he'd be the favorite, but vegas says it's bublik. not sure if that's an ability thing or the fact that it took him 'til 2 in the morning to put away borges.
@105du 100%. if Bublik brings his A-Game, he could beat/ give trouble to virtually any opponent. Unfortunately though, since Wimby last year, he has not yet found that same mojo, could happen today though :)
@traders Courtesy of the Manifold API and ChatGPT, I've managed to put together a much quicker way to manage a market like this. To celebrate, I've opened up a WTA matches market! Complete with a typo in the URL that will bother me for the rest of the year. Will run it experimentally through the U.S. Open and see how it goes/how much mana I lose. @benmanns , @evan I've got some delicious limit orders for you to gobble up!
@traders Day 2 of the US Open is up! I've got all the first round matches from the top half of the draw. Will work on getting the remainder not yet completed from the bottom half up shortly. Happy trading!
@traders we're back with Toronto Round of 16 matches today. Have a few limit orders up for the next hour. Will try to get the remainder of Toronto matches up pretty quickly, and then at least some Cincinnati matches before the year's final major.
@traders wimbledon final four are set. For a tournament that began with so many upsets, we end with perhaps the most predictable semi-finalists. Sinner did not look like he had any lingering elbow concerns against Shelton today, but having to beat someone who can actually win points on return could be a bigger task. Alcaraz has handled Fritz easily before, but maybe the American has something special this year? Market open through Friday morning!
@traders and then there were 16! Fourth round matches up with the three favorites still rolling. Limit orders up as well.
@traders round 1 (nearly) in the books. I read it tied the most number of seeds to lose in the first round in the 32 seed era. Crazy! Round 2 matches up now.
@traders wimbledon starts tomorrow, and i've got all the round 1 matches ready to go. happy trading!