A suspect must be apprehended, held, and charged, or killed. They don’t need to be convicted in this particular market.

I’ll resolve ‘yes’ if a suspect is apprehended and held for more than 7 days, or is killed, and is credibly, widely believed to be the shooter, even if there are conspiratorial doubts or complications. I’ll go by arrest or death date - if it takes place before January 1, then ‘Yes, before January 1’ will be the resolution. If it takes place after January 1 and before April 1, then ‘Yes, before April 1’ will be the resolution.

The meaningful difference between the two ‘yes’ answers is that one makes the claim that the capture is imminent, and the other makes the claim that capture is eventual or inevitable. There are other markets with other timeline approximations.

I’ll resolve ‘no’ if no credible arrest or death takes place by April 1. I’ll also resolve ‘no’ if a suspect is credibly named but evades capture through April 1.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

• A suspect named Luigi Mangione has been arrested

• Market will resolve in 7 days if Luigi Mangione continues to appear to be the perpetrator