This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).

This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.

The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:

• Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.

• Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.

• The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.

• Ordinary failures to make non-debt payments such as salaries, contractor invoices, or entitlements benefits would NOT resolve the question.

• The innumerable possible edge cases like the debt in the social security trust fund will resolve based on the response of credit agencies and CDS.

Further refinement of these terms welcome; comment below.

• Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fee-Induced Default Clarification

  • User Fee/Miran Fee: If a fee for foreign bond holders is publicly announced or widely understood to be in force, the credible threat it poses can be interpreted as a partial default.

  • Interest Rate Reduction: Since reducing the interest rate of a bond is considered a classic form of default, any penalty that effectively lowers the rate should be treated under the same default criteria.