how many partners will I acquire before 2027?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ1.7k

2027

3.82 partners

expected

ALL

14%

33%

4 - 5

6 - 7

8 - 9

Resolution criteria/info

only counts the total new partners: if I lose a partner it doesn't count (number only goes up with time or stays the same).

if someone becomes my partner, then stops, then becomes again, that only counts for 1.

"partners" in this case will include anyone i french kiss, or have sex with; it counts people i call my partner that also calls me their partner, which ive seen 1on1 at least 4 times, and don't do this solely for this market (market can be a motivation among other motivations).

the 3 partners i already have, at the creation of this market, does not count.

Additional info

i wont trade based on information not known to at least 2 of my friends ("2 of my friends" here excludes anyone that counts as a partner for this market)

more info on the original market for last year: https://manifold.markets/nikthink/how-many-partners-will-i-acquire-be

Update 2026-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): @Qualia (a partner in 2025, who stopped and then became a partner again in 2026) will likely be counted in the tally, as the market started 2026-01-01 and the description's rules technically include them. Traders may object if they disagree.

Update 2026-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partnerships must be consensual to count. The creator does not drink alcohol.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will I find a partner by 2027?

47% chance

Will I find a partner by 2030?

86% chance

I find a female partner/companion in 2026?

47% chance

Will I be single at the end of 2026?

45% chance

Will I get a girlfriend before 2027?

37% chance

Will I get a girlfriend before 2027?

32% chance

Will I get married by 2027?

15% chance

Will I enter a relationship by the end of summer 2026?

33% chance

Will i get a girlfriend by the end of 2026?

43% chance

Will I ever find a partner?

94% chance

Sort by:

Assuming time travel can happen and you can meet yourself, can you be your own partner?

Are there any conditions where you can be your own partner if time travel isn't a thing?

sold Ṁ55 NO

"partners" in this case will include anyone i french kiss" does it have to be consentual? And do you drink?

@Velaris : yes it has to be consented. no i dont drink alcohol.

@nikthink sorry for the weird questions, just trying to factor in incongruities.

@Velaris : dont apologize, i love questions.

bought Ṁ500 NO

i wonder if @Qualia should count. was my partner in 2025, stopped being my partner in 2025, then became a partner again in 2026.

@nikthink How is this ambiguous? Is it total at end of 2027 or a tally throughout?

@Qualia : more like a tally; from the market description:

only counts the total new partners: if I lose a partner it doesn't count (number only goes up with time or stays the same).

@nikthink So the only way this could be ambiguous is depending on when this market started, yes?

@Qualia : this market started 2026-01-01. i think applying the rules in the description to the letter unambiguously means you count. but the spirit of the question/market imo is more ambiguous on if you should count.

im thinking of including you in the count, @traders let me know if anyone disagrees and why.