Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
36
1kṀ76582040
76%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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Will resolve to 50% if somehow it happens at exactly the same time. 100% if before, 0% if after.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - IMO is scheduled before IOI each year. Therefore, if both events occur on the release date, the market will resolve to yes rather than a 50% outcome. (AI summary of creator comment)
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IMO is before IOI this year by the way, so if both happen right as the contest is released, it will resolve to yes.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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