When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

Ṁ13kṀ150k

2046

2,028

expected

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The description and resolution criteria correspond to those of the equivalent question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/

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sold Ṁ4,103 YES

sold Ṁ1,999 YES

@DottedCalculator Metaculus resolution criteria says they will use IMO grand challenge rules, which is formal to formal.

sold Ṁ19 YES

i clicked a button which did something that probably made this market mispriced, feel free to fix

bought Ṁ31 YES

I'd appreciate it if you add "open source" to the title. I made some large bets not realizing that part of the metaculus question.

@mods this is probably within your powers

bruh same

@FlorisvanDoorn sorry for that, I didn't realize there was this issue when creating the market based on metacullus.

How does this resolve if it happens later than 2045?

@Nat 2045.