Will Donald Trump get more than 30% of the Jewish vote in the 2024 elections, which would be a high watermark since H.W. Bush got 35% in 1988.
Note: if there is no singular polling of the Jewish vote (as was the case in 2020), this market will use the Pew Research’s value for Resolution.
Recent Jewish Republican vote totals:
2020 [Trump]: 30%
2016 [Trump]: 24%
2012 [Romney]: 30%
2008 [McCain]: 22%
2004 [Bush]: 24%
2000 [Bush]: 19%
See a related market from @DanMan314 with a much higher bar:
1,000
3.00The site linked by Mattyb, https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections, states that different polls varied but
The Pew Research Center reported that 70% of the vote was for Biden and 27% for Trump.
Since the market description said that
Note: if there is no singular polling of the Jewish vote (as was the case in 2020), this market will use the Pew Research’s value for Resolution.
This resolves as Trump getting 27% of the Jewish vote, not millennium high.
@Gabrielle It has a chart https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections that showed Trump getting at 32 percent. But I guess the tricky subtext means that this resolves NO. I will give @mattyb three stars, sorry.
