All the millenium prize markets have been popping off 🤣

Are there any old comments on manifold of people predicting this would start to happen in 2026? 🤔

@jim I see this one of yours 🤣🤣

/strutheo/will-a-millennium-problem-be-solved

Incredible

Aaah ok, going through deep manifold history now. Some people were betting serious mana it would happen in 2025

/jim/ai-solve-millenium-prize-problem-in

Huh

I scrolled to the bottom of this one: /strutheo/will-a-millennium-problem-be-solved

@ProjectVictory jim victory

@jim True. There seem to be some claims of shenanigans on openai's part but even assuming that all of them are true, we might be very, very fucked, at least economically. I was quite consistently right about AI progress until I was dramatically wrong, this year's developments are catching me completely off guard.

@ProjectVictory I kind of think lots of old manifold accounts with tons of mana will start to go sideways as the world starts to speed up and things at the tail of the distribution keep happening. Like old bets will come back to haunt them 😂

@0xseraphim Very possible, but at this point I'm more concerned about if we all become unemployable in a few years, losing mana I can live with.

@ProjectVictory who needs money when instead you can be right on the internet

@0xseraphim certainly could happen, though IMHO many of the most profitable accounts are very bullish on AI and have been for a while, so plausibly have factored this into their bets OK.

It does seem like mathematics is an especially strong capability of AI relative to other capabilities though, so although AI progress as a whole is crazy fast, AI mathematics progress is even faster. This took some people (including me) by surprise somewhat, even though the overall rate of AI progress may be more or less on trend.

@0xseraphim

who needs money when instead you can be right on the internet

If this isn't the animating spark at the center of Manifold, I don't know what is.

@chrisjbillington this is a nice, safe market to park your mana

@jim Thanks for the ping, I bought a bit and put some limit orders up

@jim ah fuck it

good luck 🐰