The members of the AI futures project have given an update and they appear to now be relying on the 80% time horizon length graph from METR for their predictions rather than the 50% time horizon length graph. This implies that a 50% time horizon is not enough. While I think markets for 50% time horizons are useful, I now think that more attention needs to be paid to 80% time horizon lengths. I am planning to create markets for 80% time horizons as soon as possible unless someone beats me to it.

@MaxLennartson Source: https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/#section-timehorizonandtheautomatedcodermilestone

"yes" order up.