Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by January 20, 2029, credible evidence demonstrates that one or more members of the Trump administration (including cabinet officials, senior advisors, or other executive branch personnel) attempted an organized, illegal or extra-legal action to:

• Seize or retain executive power beyond the constitutional term limit

• Displace the authority of Congress or the judiciary

• Prevent a lawful transfer of power or election certification

The attempt must meet the Cline Center's definition of a coup attempt: an organized effort using illegal or irregular means that poses a credible threat to the authority of a policy-making branch of government.

Resolution sources: Court filings, congressional investigations, law enforcement records, and major news outlets reporting on prosecutions or documented conspiracies. The market resolves NO if no such attempt occurs or is substantiated by January 20, 2029.

Background

During the 2020 election conclusion, Trump and his advisors collaborated in a failed coup attempting to keep Trump in power by quashing certified vote totals, including submitting a fraudulent slate of presidential electors to Congress on January 6, 2021. In 2025, Trump pardoned hundreds of January 6 rioters convicted of assault, property destruction, and sedition. Trump's current term runs from January 20, 2025 to January 20, 2029.

Considerations

The definition of "coup attempt" carries significant interpretive weight. A coup requires an organized effort using illegal or irregular means to remove or displace authority of a policy-making branch. In democracies with rule of law, the conceptual challenge is distinguishing coups from legal tactics for government replacement. This market focuses on illegal or extra-legal actions, excluding constitutional processes like impeachment or court challenges.