When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters
14
Ṁ125Ṁ3972030
May 28, 2028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
30%
Before 2027
60%
Before 2028
74%
Before 2029
88%
Before 2030
32%
Before September 2027
Beat = get statistically significant better scores (p = 0.05) than the best human on a tournament on Metaculus
Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Superforecasters are allowed to use the best AI models when competing against forecasting bots.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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