When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters
10
Ṁ125Ṁ3242030
October 12, 2028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
16%
Before 2027
41%
Before 2028
66%
Before 2029
88%
Before 2030
10%
Before September 2027
Beat: get statistically significant better scores (p = 0.05) than the best human on a tournament on Metaculus
Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Superforecasters are allowed to use the best AI models when competing against forecasting bots.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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